The channel is all about evolution, and one of the challenges has been to get to a stage where businesses can thrive despite global political and economic challenges
The world seems to have been in a state of permanent upheaval since 2019, from Covid, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the rise of populist far-right sentiment and President Donald Trump’s tariff rollercoaster.
In these unsettling times, you might be forgiven for wondering if, perhaps, permacrisis has become the new normal. If so, how does the channel survive and flourish in an age where uncertainty is the new normal?
How can channel businesses react and plan when wars and economic alarms have become constant factors at the macro level? And how do they cope with the uncertainty created by Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and the impact on their supply chains?
Joe Turner, global director of research and business development at Context, says that while this seems a time of major upheaval, adding a historical perspective can help.
“You could say that big challenges and uncertain times have always been part of history. Things often feel especially difficult simply because they’re happening now. Once problems are solved, we tend to see them differently or even forget them, making today always feel very uncertain,” he remarks.
Nevertheless, the major global events of recent years make it feel especially challenging, he says, adding: “Given that most of these things are happening at the same time, and problems spread quickly in our increasingly linked world, it makes the feeling of non-stop crisis stronger.”
Adapt positively
Turner says global events have “directly hit channel businesses – affecting product supply, security demands and customer budgets – making adaptation essential”.
However, he says companies should look beyond focusing on survival to adapting and using this period to speed up positive changes. “Surprisingly, this tough time often accelerates trends that are already happening, like moving to the cloud, focusing on cyber security and growth in AI [artificial intelligence] investment, and creates clear chances for companies ready to act,” adds Turner.
He suggests they look to be more agile, build resilience and backup plans, focus on customer needs and services, become experts in key areas and use technology smarter internally.
Stability today doesn’t come from things staying the same; it comes from being able to adapt well. Reliability means delivering great service and advice even when the world outside is chaotic
Joe Turner, Context
“Stability today doesn’t come from things staying the same; it comes from being able to adapt well. Reliability means delivering great service and advice even when the world outside is chaotic,” says Turner. “Channel companies that focus on these strategies aren’t just surviving the ‘permacrisis’ but rather are showing their value and finding ways to grow by helping their own clients navigate these uncertain times.”
David Watts, senior vice-president and managing director for the UK and Ireland at TD Synnex, agrees that external factors have had a big impact on the industry over the past five years. “I don’t think we can assume that ‘permacrisis’ will become the new normal, but we can be sure that things will change and, as we’ve seen, some events may be quite disruptive,” he says.
While people might hope for greater stability and certainty. “We can’t influence factors that are beyond our control. What we can do is try to make use of our experience in managing our way through periods of instability and prepare and provide contingency for sudden and unexpected change.”
Find stability and consistency
From a distributor’s perspective, that’s down to providing stability and consistency of service to partners. “Whatever challenges lie ahead, we are not alone,” says Watts. “The whole channel has had to deal with considerable upheaval in recent times, and as an industry, we are all in it together. We need to stay positive, look for the opportunities that will always arise from any challenge, and do the best we can to support each other,”
Dennis Frank, vice-president of strategic partnerships and alliances at Hitachi Vantara, believes channel leaders are equal to the challenges because they excel at “expecting the unexpected”, adding that channel businesses “have adaptability at their core”.
“Permacrisis has rapidly become normal for these companies, but instead of the unmitigated chaos this term might suggest, it has generally driven positive change for the industry. Today, robust yet agile business strategy has become more important than ever,” he says.
Nick Bannister, president of Arrow’s enterprise computing solutions business in EMEA, says the climate of global uncertainty means the channel “needs to demonstrate resilience by focusing on what it can control through collaboration, innovation and being agile”.
Whatever challenges lie ahead, we are not alone. We need to stay positive, look for the opportunities that will always arise from any challenge, and do the best we can to support each other
David Watts, TD Synnex
He adds: “While global events and shifting trade policies introduce complexity, the channel can continue to adapt through strategic supply chain management, intelligent cost mitigation, and a strong emphasis on high-growth areas such as cloud.”
Greg Jones, Kaseya’s senior vice-president of managed service provider (MSP) enablement (EMEA and North America), believes there is some merit in the suggestion that the permacrisis has become the new normal, but notes that dealing with a high level of uncertainty in the business world is nothing new.
“Thinking back to any time in the past few decades, there have always been ups and downs, caused by factors such as inflation, geopolitical issues, rising or falling interest rates and more,” he adds.
Nevertheless, Jones suggests it has become more compounded. “Rather than moving through peaks and troughs as in the past, big global events are currently happening almost back-to-back,” he says. “This means that as an industry, we need to adapt faster than before and be more agile in all business areas.”
Be proactive
The key is to remain focused. He argues that the MSP market is still buoyant but admits “the next 12-18 months could be turbulent” and “MSPs must remain agile and carefully tuned into what their customers need”.
Jones says the challenging business environment requires channel companies to have not just one, but several business plans, much as they have incident response plans for potential business disasters.
“Proper planning means considering all eventualities and making sure you have multiple options going forward. It’s also about accepting that you will never be fully protected from everything that might happen, so you will have to manage your risks,” he adds.
Being prepared for all eventualities is an approach endorsed by Chris Shaw, head of channel at AvePoint UK. “At the strategic level, it’s always important to think proactively rather than reactively,” he says. “Even when it feels like the future is difficult to predict, it’s still better to plan for multiple possible contingencies than it is to improvise a response in real time. Don’t just react – have a plan for how you’ll react if certain challenges arise.”
He argues that “planning for uncertainty” is really about “planning for a greater number of possible futures”, adding: “It doesn’t mean that you can’t prepare; it just means that you have to be more thoughtful, agile and coordinated in terms of how you prepare and when.”
Shaw says: “It’s important to keep a level head and not give in to the anxiety that uncertainty can create. Right now, there’s a lot of change in the world, but it’s not necessarily rational to say that it will be this way forever, or that it hasn’t been this way before.”
He believes the best way to cope with uncertainty is to focus on the things you can control. That means taking concrete steps to make the business more resilient to macro-level changes. “You can assess and limit your exposure, avoid unnecessary risks, form liquidity buffers, and so on,” he suggests. “There’s a lot we can control even when it feels like there’s a lot that we can’t.”
Focus on values
Richard Behan, chief operating officer at CAE, takes a slightly different tack from Shaw, arguing partners should “stop chasing control and start anchoring in values”.
He says: “Organisations that have a strong sense of purpose and culture can do more to steady a business than any long-range forecast. When people know what to stand for, they can adapt and act without losing their way.”
The more we collaborate, share insights and support one another, the more we unlock value, not just for our customers, but for the entire ecosystem
Richard Behan, CAE
They should also avoid short-term thinking, which he dismisses as “a false comfort”.
“The businesses that emerge stronger are agile and continue to modernise, invest in resilience, and believe in their direction even when the path isn’t linear,” he adds.
Behan also stresses the value of partnerships. “None of us solves these challenges alone,” he argues. “The more we collaborate, share insights and support one another, the more we unlock value, not just for our customers, but for the entire ecosystem.”
Nevertheless, he admits that after spending time with peers in the channel community, “I think we’d all be lying if we said we were unconcerned by what’s happening in the world right now, but we must accept that high levels of uncertainty are the new normal”.
Keep moving forward
Rachel Rothwell, regional managing director for the UK and Ireland at Zyxel Networks, says the channel is at a point where “the new normal is that there is no normal”.
She adds: “We do seem to be leaping from crisis to crisis, and that certainly doesn’t make life any easier for us or for our partners. I think the only answer is to keep pushing on, moving forward with your plans and adjusting as you go. Standing still is not an option.”
Rothwell believes that in the current environment, managed services is an option that makes sense for resellers and their customers. “For end-user customers, not having to employ technical experts to look after networks and security means less commitment and a more flexible cost base. For reseller partners, it means a more loyal and stable customer base and income stream. It’s a much lower-risk approach,” she argues.
Looking to the future, Rothwell predicts that whatever happens, “the world will still have to revolve, and technology will continue to advance, which will ultimately drive the demand for connectivity, and especially cyber security”.
She adds: “I do not yet see an end to the challenges of today, but as always, we will find our way through the noise and do our utmost to stay aligned with what our customers need.”
Control costs
Ross Teague, CEO of Nebula Global Services, expects global geopolitical turbulence to persist for a significant time, but warns to be wary of the media over-sensationalising events to fill the 24-hour news pipeline.
Like others in the industry, he lauds the channel’s ability “to react, pivot and continually innovate in the face of many challenges”. He suggests channel businesses focus on their areas of strength, control their costs and “be clear about what your aspirations are and have a clearly defined plan to get there, which you track and monitor closely”.
Understanding and controlling costs is particularly important where a large part of a channel company’s overhead is its people, who are often its biggest asset as well, “so managing these costs and controlling [them] is the critical baseline in building a sustainable business”.
There have been many potential knock-out punches the channel has faced over the last five years. It’s how you survive those punches by adapting and adjusting
Adam Williamson, Exclusive Networks
Teague accepts that the on-again, off-again sage of Trump’s tariffs is “a cause for concern for all”, but doesn’t believe in a doomsday scenario, adding that they might help in “promoting business growth by protecting domestic product”, although he admits it could “take some time before we see the benefit of the upside of this as an industry”, adding: “Ultimately, what will happen with Trump tariffs, I am not even sure Trump knows that this point!”
Adam Williamson, sales director at Exclusive Networks, describes permacrisis as an apt term for what has happened over the previous five years. But he is at pains to stress the positives: “As humans, we’re pretty adaptable, and when you consider the trials and tribulations, we should probably pat ourselves on the back and have a bit of a reality check.”
As for planning in such uncertain times, he quotes Mike Tyson’s memorable line that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”, adding: “There have been many potential knock-out punches the channel has faced over the last five years. It’s how you survive those punches by adapting and adjusting. It would have been fantastic if the plans I made in early January 2020 had all been delivered perfectly, in budget, on time and with maximum impact. Of course, that’s not the reality of any plan, certainly not any of mine.”
In terms of the US tariffs, he admits there is very little we can do other than figure out the possible outcomes and impacts. He recalls being relieved when the tariffs were originally delayed, but adds: “The reality, as I see it at the moment, is that tech prices will be rising.”
Williamson doesn’t believe there’s a need for fundamental changes to plans and strategies. “It’s just the journey to the destination may take a bit longer, with a detour and a pitstop along the way.”
He believes it helps that the IT industry is such a fast-paced change environment. “Not only does that mean technology consumption will continue, but we’re also good at pivoting, adjusting and thriving – it’s in our DNA,” he says.
